[Isishwankathelo] Amaxabiso umqhaphu wasekhaya okanye uya kuqhubeka ukothuka okuphantsi. Ixesha eliphakamileyo lesiqhelo kwimakethi yempahla liyasondela, kodwa eyona mfuno ayikabikho, amathuba okuvula amashishini amalaphu asehla, kwaye ixabiso lemisonto yomqhaphu liyaqhubeka nokuhla. Okwangoku, ukukhula komqhaphu omtsha wasekhaya kulungile, ukunyuka kwemveliso kulindeleke ukuba kuhlale kungatshintshi kwaye ixesha lokudwelisa linokuba ngaphambili kunonyaka ophelileyo. Ngelo xesha, i-quota ye-cotton import sliding tax quota iya kukhutshwa ngokukhawuleza, kwaye uxinzelelo oluphantsi kumaxabiso ekotoni yasekhaya aluyi kuncipha.
I. Uphononongo lwexabiso lwale veki
Ukususela ngo-Agasti 12 ukuya kwi-16, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokuhlaliswa kwe-Zhengzhou i-cotton futures main contract yi-13,480 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-192 yuan / ton ukusuka kwiveki edlulileyo, phantsi kwe-1.4%; Isalathiso somqhaphu weSizwe weXabiso B, elimele ixabiso lemarike lelanti yebakala eliqhelekileyo kwilizwe, eliqikelelwa kwi-14,784 yuan/toni, phantsi kwe-290 yuan/toni ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, okanye nge-1.9%. Umqhaphu waseNew York wekamva lomyinge wexabiso eliphakathi leesenti ezingama-67.7/eponti, unyuke nge-0.03 yeesenti/ngeponti ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, ngokusisiseko sicaba; Ixabiso elingumndilili wesalathiso somqhaphu wamazwe ngamazwe (M) omele ixabiso eliphakathi lomqhaphu ongeniswe kumazwe angaphandle kwizibuko eliphambili laseTshayina laliyi-76.32 yeesenti/yeponti, linyuke nge-0.5 yeesenti/ngeponti ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, kunye neendleko zokungenisa elizweni eziyi-RMB 13,211 yuan/ton ( Ibalwe nge-1% yoluhlu lweerhafu, ngaphandle kwezinto eziziintlobo ngeentlobo zaseHong Kong nomthwalo), inyuke nge-88 yuan/toni ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, ukwanda nge-0.7%. Ixabiso lomqhaphu lasekhaya liyi-1573 yuan/toni ngaphezulu kwexabiso lomqhaphu lamazwe ngamazwe, elingaphantsi kwe-378 yuan/toni kuneveki ephelileyo. Umndilili wexabiso lasekhaya C32S umsonto jikelele wekama enyulu umsonto yi 21,758 yuan/toni, phantsi 147 yuan/ton ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo. Ixabiso lomsonto wesiqhelo yi-22222 yuan/toni, elingana neveki ephelileyo. Ixabiso le-polyester i-fiber staple yi-7488 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-64 yuan / toni ukusuka kwiveki edlulileyo.
Okwesibini, imbonakalo yemarike yexesha elikufutshane
(1) Imarike yamazwe ngamazwe
Izinto ezithandekayo ziye zavela, amaxabiso ekotoni okanye aya kuzinza. Ingxelo yeSebe lezoLimo yase-US ngo-Agasti wobonelelo kunye nengxelo yemfuno iqikelele imveliso yomqhaphu e-3.29 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2024/25, ukuncipha kweetoni ezingama-410,000 ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, ngenxa yembalela esanda kuba mandundu kummandla we-US ovelisa umqhaphu. I-USDA yeDrought Monitor ibika ukuba malunga neepesenti ze-22 zeendawo zokuvelisa ikotoni zichaphazeleka kwesomiso kule veki, ukusuka kwi-13 ekhulwini kwiveki ngaphambili. Ngokwezibalo ezivela kwiSebe lezoLimo laseIndiya, ukusukela nge-8 ka-Agasti ka-2024/25 indawo yokutyala umqhaphu e-Indiya yayizizigidi ezili-166 zeemu, phantsi kwe-8.9% ngonyaka, kwaye imveliso iqikelelwa ukuba iyancipha ngeetoni ezingama-370,000 ngonyaka- unyaka. Okwangoku, idatha yeSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US ibonise ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-US yokuthengisa kwenyuka ngeepesenti ze-1 ngoJulayi ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, inqanaba eliphezulu ukususela ngoFebruwari 2023, okwenza imarike ingakhathazeki kakhulu malunga nokudodobala kwe-US, ukubonelela ngenkxaso yokuphucula ukuvakalelwa kwimarike yempahla. Ngokwengxelo yeKomishoni yoRhwebo ye-Commodity Futures yase-United States, ukusukela nge-6 ka-Agasti, i-ICE ikamva lomqhaphu (abavelisi, abarhwebi, abaqhubekisi) isithuba eside se-1156, okokuqala ukusukela ngo-2019 ukujika umnatha, okuthetha ukuba imali yoshishino ikholelwa ukuba umqhaphu wamazwe ngamazwe. amaxabiso okanye bangene kuluhlu lokuxabisa oluphantsi. Edityaniswe nezi zinto zingasentla, amaxabiso womqhaphu wamazwe ngamazwe alindeleke ukuba azinze.
(2) Imarike yasekhaya
Imfuno esezantsi ayizange ibone ukuqala, amaxabiso ekotoni aqhubeka eguquguquka kwizinga eliphantsi. Ngokutsho kweNational Bureau of Statistics, ukuthengiswa kweentengiso zempahla, izihlangu, iminqwazi kunye neemveliso zelaphu e-China ngoJulayi zaziyi-93.6 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, phantsi kwe-5.2% ngonyaka; Idatha yeCustoms ibonise ukuba iimpahla zaseChina kunye nempahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ngoJulayi zazingama-26.8 eebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, phantsi kwe-0.5% ngonyaka. Ukususela ngo-Agasti, imarike yasekhaya ikhangele phambili kwixesha elizayo elithi "igolide elithoba isilivere elineshumi" yexesha lemfuno yemveli, kodwa imiyalelo ayikabonakali iimpawu zokuphucula. Ngokutsho kwenkqubo yovavanyo yelizwe umqhaphu esweni inkqubo yemarike, ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti uphando isampuli yamashishini olulaphu ukuvula amathuba 73.6%, phantsi 0.8 ekhulwini amanqaku ukusuka kwinyanga edlulileyo, kuphela iintlobo umsonto orhabaxa ngamnye ukubonisa iimpawu ezithile ukufudumala, le terminal. I-market Wake-and-see atmosphere isenzima, kule veki amaxabiso omqhaphu wasekhaya ayaqhubeka nokuhla. Okwangoku, ukukhula komqhaphu kungcono, kulindeleke ukuba ixesha lokudweliswa komqhaphu linokuba ngaphambili kunonyaka ophelileyo, kwaye i-cotton import sliding tax quota iza kukhutshwa, enokuthi yenze uxinzelelo olungakumbi kumaxabiso ekotoni yasekhaya, kwaye ukubakho kokuqhubeka ukothuka okuphantsi kukhulu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Aug-19-2024